Hur kan man, utifrån socialdemokratiska värderingar, resonera kring en lösning för Greklands skuldkris? Erik Bengtsson tar sig an utmaningen att diskutera denna högst aktuella fråga med hjälp av ett ekonomiskt-politiskt tankeexperiment.
Sommarkåseri: hjärngympa om den grekiska krisen
Text: Erik Bengtsson
”The biggest question in any debt crisis is whether a credible path back to solvency can be found. For Greece, this now seems very unlikely. /…/ This raises three further questions. First, how big is any required restructuring? Second, who should bear the cost? Finally, is restructuring enough? If the answer to the last question is no, then one has to ask whether the currency union will last in its current form.”
Martin Wolf, i Financial Times 6 juli
“We are talking of a game-changer and a systemic crisis. This is existential for the eurozone.”
Willem Buiter, cit i Financial Times 16-17 juli (Giles 2011)
1. Inledning
Den grekiska krisen diskuteras minst sagt flitigt i affärspress, ekonom-bloggosfaren och annorstädes. Detta har fått mig att tänka på en uppgift som hjärngympa, som man skulle kunna ha som ett extremt nördigt sällskapsspel (fast utan tävlingsmoment). Jag gillar hjärngympa: det är inte bara ett lustigt ord utan också en bra beteckning på en intellektuell motsvarighet till att sträcka på benen. Hjärngympans uppgift, en diskussionsfråga, är denna:
- Vad for ställningstagande om lösning för Greklands skuldkris kan man göra utifrån (givet) socialdemokratiska värderingar?*
För krishanteringsdiskussion har jag egentligen inte sett så mycket av i svenska socialdemokratin. Jag inser att Greklands skuldkris kanske inte är så policyrelevant för den svenska arbetarrörelsen; Sverige är inte med i EMU och deras krishanteringsdiskussioner, och vårt eget statsfinansiella läge är helt annorlunda än Greklands. Men som ett av många stora makroekonomiska skeenden i världen idag (ökade profiter, Kina-inflation, etc) som inte är direkt policyrelevanta för svensk socialdemokrati, tänker jag mig ändå att också Europas statsskuldskris är ett intressant ämne för diskussion för makroekonomisk orientering. Som hjärngympa, men också som kontext för ens ekonomisk-politiska kompass.
Analytiska frågor och begrepp
För några stora politisk ekonomi-frågor finns ju här, kanske framför allt två stycken. Ett, hur stora förluster bör privata långivare till den grekiska staten tvingas ta? Om banker som franska BNP Paribas och tyska Commerzbank gjort lån till långivare som uppenbarligen inte har någon vidare återbetalningsförmåga, borde de inte då också enligt kapitalismens spelregler – ingen vinst utan risk – tvingas ta förluster? Vore räddningar att jämföra med ’socialism för de rika’, dvs att låta kapitalistklassen göra vinster i goda tider för att sedan låta staten/skattebetalarna (vilket förstås inkluderar kapitalisterna, men ihopblandade med alla andra) ta förlusterna i dåliga tider? Att generöst rädda privata långivare till Grekland skulle skapa vad som kallas moral hazard, ’moralisk risk’, vilket är att man genom att försäkra långivarnas förväntade återbetalningar även då de lånat ut pengar till personer/företag/stater (t ex Grekland) som inte kan betala tillbaka, så ger man dem desto större anledning att fortsätta låna ut okritiskt (jfr Mackintosh i FT 18 juli).
Men fråga två, för det andra: är inte bailouts ’keynesianismens fortsättning med andra medel’? Vi vill väl föra en kontracyklisk politik som undviker de värsta krascherna, och om att låta olika finansiella institut ta några hundra miljarder euro i smällar, är det inte då att leka med tändstickor? USA:s bailout av finansiella institutioner har visat att bailouts kan gå med vinst för staten (jfr Sveriges krishantering på 90-talet); så trumfar då ändå ”vi vill inte ha socialism för de rika”-argumentet ”keynesianismens fortsättning med andra medel”-argumentet?
Svårt. Men värt att fundera på. Detta är ett diskussionsunderlag, ihopknåpat efter bästa förmåga på fritiden några kvällar i juli**.
Två steg
Jag tänker mig att för att diskutera denna fråga kan man gå tillväga i två steg.
Steg ett är att inventera: vilka möjliga lösningar finns det? Av allt att döma handlar det om ett kontinuum mellan total statsbankrutt (credit default) i ena extremen, och total bailout i andra extremen. Kontinuumets definierande egenskap är: hur fördelas kostnaderna när skulderna ska lösas ut? (Detta är antaget att Grekland helt enkelt inte kommer att klara av att betala tillbaka sin statsskuld utan antingen bankrutt, avskrivning eller bailout.) Ekonomerna Paolo Manasse och Giuilio Triglia gör en distinktion mellan ”bail-in-ers” och ”bail-out-ers” i krisdiskussionen:
- “bail-in-ers, the advocates of coercive (but soft) restructuring of Greek debt, and
- bail-out-ers, those who favour the procrastination of EU-IMF lending plus ‘voluntary’ rollover.”
Steg två är att inventera: vilka parametrar bör man beakta när man gör sin bedömning? Här har vi faktorer som: vilken tillväxttakt kan Grekland förväntas ha de närmsta tio-tjugo-trettio åren? Vilken räntenivå kan de förväntas klara av att betala av på givet olika tillväxttakter? Hur skulle den europeiska ekonomin och världsekonomin drabbas om Grekland gjorde bankrutt? Hur definieras ”bankrutt” i detta fall – kan EU och Grekland komma undan med någon ”frivillig omstrukturering” eller annan omskrivning för minskad återbetalning, utan att kreditinstituten ser detta som en bankrutt (alternativt, vidare, en ”credit event”)?
Först är det dock bäst att kort gå igenom några nyckelfakta om läget: hur stor är skulden, osv.
2. Förutsättningar
Det är ju Greklands skuldkris som ska diskuteras, så lämpligen kan man börja med frågan: hur stor är skulden? Greklands brutto-statsskuld som procent av BNP syns i diagrammet nedan, tillsammans med tre jämförelseländer: Sverige, Storbritannien och USA.
OECD:s data går fram till år 2010 och för 2011 och 2012 är det prognoser. Vi ser att år 2010 uppgick Greklands statsskuld till 147 procent av BNP, och år 2012 beräknas den vara 159 procent av BNP. En tumregel som brukar användas är att en brutto-statsskuld på 80 procent av BNP är okej och hållbart, men högre är inte önskvärt.
Varför spelar då detta roll? Jo, förutom att skulderna förstås ska betalas tillbaka vid någon tidpunkt, så ska räntan också fortlöpande betalas. Eftersom stater generellt sett lånar mycket så kan också räntekostnaderna bli stora: år 2009 så motsvarade Italiens räntekostnader 4,3 procent av BNP, Portugals 2,9 procent av BNP, Tysklands 2,2 procent, och USA:s 1,4 procent (källa: OECD STAT). Detta kan relateras till exempel till att Sveriges utgifter för familjepolitik (föräldraförsäkring osv) ligger runt 3 procent av BNP, och statens utgifter för A-kassan mellan 1 och 2 procent av BNP. Tyvärr så har inte OECD statistik på Greklands ränteutgifter som procent av BNP, men med tanke på statsskuldens storlek och de höga räntorna på landets statspapper torde andelen vara hög. Räntorna på statspapper ser vi i diagrammet nedan. Detta är alltså hur hög ränta som en stat behöver betala till de aktörer – banker osv – som äger statspapprena, som är en slags statliga ”I O U”-lappar. Räntan som syns i diagrammet är för 10-åriga statspapper; förutom den räntan brukar också de på 1-åriga och 5-åriga statspapper också användas.
Vi ser att Sverige betalade höga räntor på sin statsskuld under 90-talskrisen, men att räntorna sedan pressats ned till Tysklands nivå. Tyskland, med sin konservativa ekonomiska politik mot inflation och statsskuld, brukar ses som ett ”benchmark” för statspappers räntor i Europa. Grekland betalade höga räntor i sluten av 90-talet, sedan föll räntan ned till ungefär tysk nivå under större delen av 00-talet, innan den rusade i höjden igen i den nuvarande krisen.
Räntan som en stat tvingas betala på sina statspapper – som alla stater ger ut, eftersom de även om de förstås har tillgångar och inkomster, också lånar för driften – är en av de viktigaste beståndsdelarna i vad som nebulöst brukar kallas ”marknadens förtroende” för den förda politiken. Om banker och andra finansiella aktörer tror att det är en risk att en viss stat inte kommer att kunna betala tillbaka sina skulder, och betala räntorna, så kommer de förstås att kräva högre ränta som riskpremie. Och då svider det i statens plånbok. Bill Clintons rådgivare James Carville sa i ett berömt uttalande att i nästa liv skulle han vilja komma tillbaka som marknaden för statspapper:
“I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.”
Ett färskt exempel på när ”marknaden” (dvs dess aktörer) ”bestraffade” en regering med att höja dess lånekostnader är Italien, 8 juli 2011. Efter att premiärminister Silvio Berlusconi trots Italiens statsskuld på 120 procent av BNP kritiserade sin finansminister Giulio Tremontis nedskärningsplaner, och istället lyfte fram ett påstått behov av att sänka skatter, så fick marknaden spel på Italien (jfr Oakley et al 2011; Dinmore och Milne 2011). Där var det alltså en möjligen kommande ekonomisk politik som riskerar att öka snarare än minska statsskulden, som sänkte förtroendet för Italiens statspapper, med omedelbara effekter. Totalt sett så ökade räntan på Italiens 10-åriga statspapper med nästan en procentenhet i början av juli, vilket om nivån stannar där höjer den italienska statens räntekostnader med €3,2 miljarder i år och €6 miljarder år 2012.
Att en stat ställer in sina betalningar, eller ensidigt skriver ner dem, på statsskulden, är ovanligt men händer. Argentina gjorde det 2001, Ryssland 1998. Under 1980-talet var flera latinamerikanska länder i problem med sina statsskulder, och en av de lösningar som skapades då var de s k ”Brady bonds” som var nya statspapper som ordnades under USA:s ledning år 1989. Privata kreditörer fick ta nedskrivningar på statspapprena de ägde, mot större säkerhet i återbetalningen. Såväl Argentinas credit default 2001 och Brady bonds-taktiken är saker som dykt upp i den nuvarande Greklandsdiskussionen på exempel på vad som kan göras.
Vilka är det som idag äger grekiska statspapper idag? Investmentbanken Barclays Capital har tagit fram en lista över de största ägarna. Toppen ser ut så här:
Tjugo största långivarna till grekiska staten, juni 2011 | ||
Statspapper, mdr € | Lån, mdr € | |
Eurosystem SMP | 49,0 | |
EU-lån | 17 | |
Grekiska offentliga fonder | 30,0 | |
Officiella institutioner utanför Europa | 25,0 | |
IMF-lån | 15 | |
National Bank of Greece | 13,2 | 5,4 |
Centralbanker från eurozonen | 13,1 | |
Piraeus (grekisk bank) | 8,0 | |
EFG (grekisk bank) | 9,0 | |
FMS (ex Depfa/Hypo Real Estate) | 6,3 | |
Bank of Greece legacy loans | 6,0 | |
BNP Paribas (fransk bank) | 5,0 | |
ATE (grekisk bank) | 4,6 | |
AlphaBank (grekisk bank) | 3,7 | |
Dexia (belgisk/luxemburgsk/fransk bank) | 3,5 | |
Hellenic Postbank | 3,1 | |
Generali (italiensk bank) | 3,0 | |
Commerzbank (tysk bank) | 2,9 | |
Societe Generale (fransk bank) | 2,9 | |
Marlin (grekisk bank) | 2,3 | |
Totalt, med alla aktörer | 285,0 | 75,0 |
Källa: beräkningar från Barclays Capital, återgivna på Economists Free Exchange-blogg 21 juni |
Tabellen säger något om vad för typ av aktörer – privata såväl som statliga – som handlar i statspapper. Den är också värd att komma tillbaka till längre fram, när det är dags över att fundera på krispolitikens politiska ekonomi i form av vilka som tjänar och förlorar på olika alternativ.
Utöver själva räntan på statspapper så är en annan indikator som ofta brukar användas som ’benchmark’ för en stats finansiella tillstånd priset på credit default swaps (CDS) gentemot det landets skuld. CDS är försäkring mot att staten ska ställa in sina betalningar (default), så desto dyrare CDS för en stat är, desto större risk bedömer ”marknaden” (dvs dess aktörer) att det är för att staten ska ställa in betalningarna. Priserna för CDS för Grekland, Italien och Spanien har rusat i höjden under 2010-2011 just på grund av misstankar om att de kan komma att ställa in betalningarna framöver. Att marknaden för CDS är så enorm gör också att det är svårare att förutse vilka förutsättningarna kommer att bli i det finansiella systemet ifall Grekland ställer in betalningarna (jfr Story 2011). Spekulationerna är stora om huruvida en ’credit event’, alltså statsbankrutt eller mer eller mindre ’frivilliga’ nedskrivningar av Greklands skulder kommer att lösa ut alla CDS mot Greklands statsskuld, vilket skulle innebära enorma rörelser av pengar på ett sätt som är hart när omöjligt att förutse idag. New York Times (Story 2011) konstaterar att den största finansiella institutionen som föll i USA:s finanskris var American Insurance Group, som föll just eftersom den sålt enorma mängder försäkringar mot bostadslån, vilka utlöstes mer eller mindre på en gång när subprime-krisen slog till. NYT spekulerar därför i om också en möjlig grekisk ’credit event’ kan skapa en europeisk motsvarighet till AIG. Det finns idag CDS mot Grekland på ungefär $75 miljarder på marknaderna; motsvarande siffra för Italien är 175 och Spanien 150 (Story 2011). Vem och vilka som är försäkrade, och vilka som kommer att tvingas betala är däremot oklart; i juni 2011 publicerade en av Financial Times bloggar uppgiften att US-amerikanska banker garanterade $32,7 miljarder i CDS mot Grekland, som de skulle behöva betala ut om Grekland defaultade. Denna siffra visade sig några dagar senare vara en missbedömning (Alloway 17 juni 2011). Att även FT misstar sig i denna fråga, visar hur komplicerad den är.
Tidslinje: den grekiska skuldkrisen | |
5 mars 2010 | Grekiska regeringen presenterar budget med nedskärningar på €4,8 mdr |
12, 23 april 2010 | 12 april: IMF och Grekland kommer överens om €45 lånepaket att utlösas följande år. Redan 23 april ber Grekland om att få lånet. |
27 april 2010 | Standard & Poor’s nedvärderar grekiska statspapper till ”skräp”-status (B+) |
2 maj 2010 | Lånpaket på €110 mdr över tre år från IMF och eurozonens länder till Grekland. Grekiska regeringens motprestation är ett fjärde besparingspaket |
Februari 2011 | IMF, ECB och EU-kommissionen kommer överens om €30 miljarders likviditetspaket för att hålla Greklands banker flytande. Pengarna har dock inte ännu (detta skrivs i juli) betalats ut (Spiegel, Hope och Wiesmann 2011). |
9 maj 2011 | EU skapar European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), för att upprätthålla finansiell stabilitet i Europa och stödja medlemsstater i finansiella kriser. EFSF har lånekapacitet på €440 miljarder och kommer 2013 att omvandlas till European Stability Mechanism (ESM) med €700 miljarder lånekapacitet. |
13 juni 2011 | Standard & Poor’s nedgraderar grekiska statspapper till klass CCC, lägst gradering i världen |
Juli 2011 | Eurozonens medlemsstater och ECB arbetar på ett andra bailout-paket för Grekland, men har svårt att komma till en överenskommelse (Spiegel och Atkins 2011). Hela paketet ska vara i storleksordningen ca 115 miljarder euro. |
3. Föreslagna lösningar
Här ska jag ta upp några förslag på mer lösningar, hämtade framför allt från debatter i dagspressen. Standardläget bestäms av ett samspel av IMF, EU:s regeringar och Europeiska Centralbanken (ECB), så därför tror jag att det lämpar sig att börja med en beskrivning av deras positioner. Därefter kommer korta genomgångar av sju olika förslag:
- Frankrikes bankvänliga förslag, juli 2011
- Låt Grekland lämna eurozonen?
- Skuldnedskrivning
- Sachs: låt EU betala
- David Harvey: Grekland bör defaulta
- Susan George: default plus eurobonds
- Jonas Sjöstedt: default, väg ut ur euron
- Wolfgang Münchau: eurobonds
Detta är en mycket brokig samling debattörer: franska banklobbyn, tyska euroskeptiker, en mainstreamekonom (Sachs), en marxistisk geograf (Harvey), en vänster-tankesmedja-ekonom (George), en politiker (Sjöstedt), en journalist (Münchau). Men alla tampas de med samma frågor – hur mycket kan Grekland rimligtvis betala tillbaka? Vilka ska betala de som Grekland inte kan, EU-medlemsstater (genom EFSF, eurobonds eller direkta bailouts), och/eller långivarna? Och så vidare. Efter hand när jag går igenom de olika förslagen går jag också in på några av nackdelarna med förslagen.
De centrala aktörernas positioner
Tre av de fyra mest centrala aktörerna (den fjärde är förstås den grekiska regeringen) är den europeiska centralbanken (ECB), övriga EU-regeringar och IMF. IMF och EU-regeringarna är viktiga för att de pumpar in pengar i bailout-paket, ECB för att de reglerar penningpolitiken i eurozonen. Här kommer en beskrivning av deras ståndpunkter i skuldkrishanteringsfrågan, utifrån ekonomen Kash Mansori på hans blogg och en artikel av Ian Traynor och Philip Inman (2011) i The Guardian.
Ett, IMF. Stor långivare till Grekland förstås, och fokuserat på att Grekland ska skära ner i statsbudgeten så att IMF ska kunna få sina pengar tillbaka.
Två, ECB. Mansori:
”They have threatened sturm und drang if there is any Greek restructuring (i.e. default). They’ve made it quite clear that they will allow the Greek banking system to collapse if restructuring happens — which, I’ve argued previously, essentially means that they are saying that they will force Greece out of the eurozone if there’s a restructuring. With that threat in hand, they have placed themselves squarely in the camp of the large banks and other creditors, which may not be surprising since the ECB is in fact Greece’s largest creditor.”
ECB:s position i krisen är minst sagt fascinerande; deras kompromisslöshet och radikalism har förvånat många i debatten. Economists Ryan Avent skriver om ECB
“Why would the ECB behave this way? [så kompromisslöst] Perhaps its leaders feel they’ve put enough on the line and that now they must do what they can to accelerate a closer fiscal union within the euro zone. The best way to do that, they may figure, is to close off all other options. But the ECB’s anti-haircut stance, in combination with its dangerously contractionary monetary policy is sure to place the euro zone under extreme stress. Maybe a closer union will be forged under the pressure. Or maybe the whole thing will fly apart.” (4 juli)
Tre, EU:s regeringar. Här är Tyskland och Frankrike de viktigaste aktörerna. Den tyska konservativ-nyliberala regeringen har utmärkt sig genom att vara den enda institutionella aktören som kräver att den privata sektorn, i form av Greklands långivare, ska ta en del av smällen och acceptera nedskrivningar av Greklands skulder. Mansori:
”In essence, the German government has placed itself squarely in the camp of European taxpayers, who naturally don’t want to have to bear the cost of the Greek default single-handedly (i.e. without getting the banks and other creditors to share in the pain).”
Medan ECB säger tvärnej till att Greklands långivare ska förlora pengar (ECB är självt en av Greklands största långivare), så hävdar alltså den tyska regeringen raka motsatsen. Och visst förefaller det bisarrt att kreditinstitut som lånat ut till låntagare med usel återbetalningsförmåga, inte ska få ta några förluster för sina tveksamma beslut, medan europeiska skattebetalare istället ska pumpa in pengar till den grekiska staten för vidarebefordran till ECB, IMF, BNP Paribas, Commerzbank och andra. Ryan Avent spekulerar som jag citerat ovan till och med i om huruvida ECB har en lömsk plan på att tvinga fram en förvärring av krisen för att tvinga EU:s regeringar införa mer av fiskal union. Det ska dock också sägas att ECB betonar vikten av att grekiska banker ska kunna använda grekiska statspapper som säkerhet när de lånar av ECB (Milne och Wiesmann 2011). I juli 2011 förklarade ECB att även om någon av de fyra stora oligopolistiska kreditvärderingsinstituten förklarade Grekland vara i bankrutt, så skulle ECB fortsätta acceptera Greklands statspapper som säkerhet, så länge inte alla fyra kreditvärderingsinstitut nedklassade Grekland.
Övriga EU-regeringar då? James Mackintosh i FT 17 juli gör en distinktion mellan två grupper: Fangs (Finland, Österrike, Nederländerna och Tyskland) som vill ha en nedskrivning av statsskulden med förluster för privata långivare, och Figs (Frankrike, Italien, Grekland och Spanien) som backas av ECB i att vilja ha steg mot en fiskal union. Europeiska Socialistpartiet (ESP), samlingsgruppen för socialdemokratiska partier i EU-parlamentet, har uttalat sig för att privata långivare ska ta förluster på Greklands statsskuld (Hope 2011). ESP är alltså på Fangs sida i den frågan.
Frankrikes bankvänliga förslag, juli 2011
Den franska regeringen, i samarbete med franska banker som BNP Paribas***, kom i juli med ett förslag till lösning. (Economist, 7 juli, beskriver förslaget som ”a complex proposal advanced by the French banking lobby”.) Den har fyra delar (Jenkins 2011; jfr Economist 30 juni). Ett, en stor del av Greklands statsskuld med utgångsdatum de närmsta tre åren skulle omvandlas till I O Us på 30 års varaktighet istället. Två, för att försäkra dessa 30-åriga statspapper skulle grekiska staten vara tvungen att för varje €100 i skuld köpa totalt säkra europeiska statspapper (antagligen från European financial stability facility) för €40. Dessa €40 säkrare papper skulle placeras i en så kallad ”special purpose vehicle”. För varje €100 i skuld som Grekland skulle förfalla på, skulle kreditörerna få €40 i pålitligare papper. Tre, räntan på de 30-åriga statspapprena skulle variera mellan 5 och 8 procent, beroende på Greklands BNP-tillväxttakt (högre tillväxt: högre ränta). Fyra, 50 procent av den utstående skulden skulle omfattas av omvandlingspaketet.
Detta förslag har kritiserats hårt och knappast försvarats av någon. Patrick Jenkins i FT hävdar att det är ett intressepaket från BNP Paribas med flera, att dessa kreditörer vill tvinga Grekland till ny försäkring av statspapprena. Jenkins vill istället att kreditörerna ska tvingas ta förluster. Att vissa avskrivningar av statsskulden ska ske verkar också oundvikligt och som att alla numera (19 juli) håller med om; Wall Street Journal rapporterar 18 juli om en survey som de gjort bland 49 nationalekonomer, och där alla utom en håller med om påståendet att Grekland måste ”omstrukturera” sin statsskuld (Izzo 2011). Till och med Frankrike tycks ha övergivit förslaget från början av juli, som helt enkelt inte fick något stöd.
Låt Grekland lämna eurozonen?
Fyra (EMU-kritiska) tyska ekonomer skrev i FT i mars 2010 och hävdade att Grekland måste lämna eurozonen. Deras resonemang gick så här: Greklands stora nedskärningspaket förvärrar situationen; det finns ett förbud mot bailouts i EMU:s konstruktion, och det enda sättet på vilket Grekland skulle kunna återvinna konkurrenskraft är att gå ur EMU, och återskapa drachman på en konkurrenskraftig nivå (Hankel et al 2010).
Martin Jacomb argumenterar i juli 2011 för samma sak i FT. Att omstrukturera Greklands lån för att förlänga deras utbetalningstid avfärdar han med att det är ett sätt för dagens makthavare att skjuta upp smällen tills det inte längre är de själva som behöver ta den. Vidare ser han också ytterligare lån, från EU-medlemsstater m m, som en överföring av pengar från europeiska skattebetalare till europeiska banker; med tanke på att han inte anser att Grekland kommer att kunna betala tillbaka sina skulder inom EMU heller i framtiden, så vore ju ytterligare lån en överföring. Liksom de fyra tyska ekonomerna som jag tagit upp ovan är Jacomb kritisk till EMU som helhet, och hävdar att:
”Greece cannot earn its way out of this mess. Its adoption of the euro made it uncompetitive and, so long as the euro remains its currency, this state of affairs will go on.”
Hankel et al och Jacombs policyförslag bygger alltså på antagandet att Greklands ekonomi inom eurozonen helt enkelt inte är konkurrenskraftig, och att de därför inte heller kommer att kunna få sådan tillväxt att de har råd med att betala tillbaka statsskulden, om de inte lämnar eurozonen.
Också ekonomen Desmond Lachmann på den nyliberala tankesmedjan American Enterprise Institute hävdar att Grekland bör lämna eurozonen och devalvera. Så här kontrasterar han sitt förslag med alternativet att vara kvar i eurozonen och genomföra IMF:s policyprogram:
”attempting to hew the International Monetary Fund policy line of no default and no devaluation will almost certainly exacerbate Greece’s already very deep recession. And, by so doing, it will create those economic and political conditions that in the end will make it impossible for Greece to repay its debt and to remain within the euro.
Argentina’s experience with devaluation and default some 10 years ago would suggest that Greece’s interests would be best served by an early large default and an early exit from the euro. Since while such a route is all too likely to be painful in the short run, it would at least offer Greece the prospect for an eventual economic recovery that the I.M.F. policy approach would not.”
Lachmann håller alltså med de tyska och brittiska eurokritikerna om att Grekland inte kan nå för skuldbetalning tillräcklig tillväxt inom eurozonen. Som vi kommer se nedan så håller Jeffrey Sachs inte med. Nationalekonomen Dani Rodrik håller däremot med Lachmann om att Argentina 2001 är ett bra exempel på en lyckad default, där landet kom tillbaka relativt snabbt ekonomiskt sett efter att ha ställt in betalningarna på statsskulden. Också Paul Krugman håller med: ”Surely the Argentine example suggests that default is a great idea”. Argentina ställde 2001 in betalningarna på $100 miljarder i statsskuld (Webber 2011), och bytte efter ett nyliberalt 90-tal ut nyliberalismen mot en ny policyblandning. Den ekonomiska tillväxten har varit stark sedan dess, men staten har fortfarande svårt att låna på internationella kapitalmarknader och därför måste man föra överskott i utrikeshandel såväl som statsbudgeten. Man har bland annat använt justeringar nedåt av växelkursen för att klara utrikeshandelöverskottet, och har i år för femte året i rad tvåsiffrig inflationstakt (i år hela 25 procent). Kritikerna av Argentinas modell hävdar att den höga tillväxten – runt 7 procent per år sedan kraschens slut 2002 – i hög grad drivits av råvarupriser, snarare än av sund ekonomisk politik. Vilka slutsatser som kan dras från Argentinas default år 2001 för Grekland år 2011 är helt klart oklart. Den uppenbara kritiken mot de som tycker att Grekland bör defaulta är att en default skulle kunna utlösa kaos. En företrädare för denna kritik är Lawrence Summers:
”The European Central Bank is right in its concern that punishing creditors for the sake of teaching lessons or building political support is reckless in a system that depends on confidence.” (Summers i FT, 18 juli)
Summers menar att USA:s regering att låta investmentbanken Lehman Brothers gå i konkurs – dvs att inte bailouta Lehman – var ett stort misstag som utlöste kaos på finansmarknaderna, och att en grekisk konkurs skulle innebära samma sak. Summers vill istället att EU:s medlemsstater ska bidra mer till att bailouta Grekland.
Också Hankel et als förslag att Grekland skulle lämna eurozonen är minst sagt komplicerat (Chaffin 2011). De omedelbara kostnaderna för att byta ut bankomater, trycka pengar osv är en sak. Men ett återskapande av drachman skulle också antagligen leda till en ’run’ på bankerna, att folk skulle rusa till att dra ut sina besparingar, eftersom drachman skulle devalveras och besparingarna skulle förlora i värde om man inte hann dra ut dem i euro först. Eftersom statsskulden är utgiven i euro skulle en svagare drachma också göra det dyrare att betala av skulden. Att lämna euron skulle också leda till mycket stor osäkerhet på marknaderna.
Skuldnedskrivning
I juli 2011 och efter den massiva kritiken av Frankrikes förslag om 30-årig förlängning av en del av statsskulden, har en ny inriktning seglat upp i EU:s krisbekämpning. En EU-byråkrat säger till FT: ”the headline objective is to improve debt sustainability and reduce the debt burden of Greece” (Spiegel och Milne 2011). FT kommenterar:
“If this is the intention options such as a voluntary debt rollover, pushed by French banks, become something of a sideshow. Bringing down Greece’s debt levels means massive repurchases of debt on the market. Under such a scheme, bondholders would sell their holdings, often at a slight premium to current market prices but well below face value – locking in losses, but also certainty, while cutting Greece’s debt burden. Benchmark 10-year Greek bonds were trading at 52 cents in the euro last night, showing the scope for this method of cutting the debt pile.
This idea has been pushed in the past by the European Commission and the European Central Bank but rejected by Germany. Olli Rehn, the EU’s senior economic official, this year advocated overhauling the eurozone’s €440bn bail-out fund, the European financial stability facility, to allow it to dip into the bond market and buy Greek debt. Berlin objected, however, amid fears that European taxpayers would be on the hook for billions in repurchases.”
Vi ser här hur diskussionen kommer upp om vad European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) tillåts göra. Den frågan kommer komma tillbaka i samband med Wolfgang Münchaus diskussion nedan. Det är också värt att notera att Daniel Gros, vid EU-vänliga tankesmedjan Centre for European Policy Studies, förespråkade en EFSF-baserad lösning i en debatt i New York Times i juni:
”The European rescue fund — European Financial Stability Facility, or E.F.S.F. — should offer holders of Greek paper an exchange into E.F.S.F. paper at the current market price. Banks could be ‘induced’ by regulators to accept the offer.
The E.F.S.F. could then be the only remaining creditor of Greece and propose a bargain to the country: ‘We write down the nominal value of our claims (say, 280 billion euros) to the amount we paid (say, 150 billion euros) and extend all maturities (at unchanged interest rates) by five years provided you (Greece) agree to additional adjustment efforts (and asset sales).’
This should be too good of a bargain for Greece not to accept since it avoids default and saves the country 130 billion euros. While the E.F.S.F. exchanges the stock of Greek bonds, the International Monetary Fund could finance the remaining deficits in the usual way, with bridge financing until the fiscal adjustment is completed.”
Detta är ett intressant förslag. Det innebär en stor face value-förlust för de nuvarande ägarna av grekiska statspapper, men samtidigt en bättre lösning än vad de kunde räkna med utan någon sådan politisk lösning. Gros hävdar också att denna EFSF-operation skulle kunna undvika att stämplas som ’credit event’ av kreditvärderingsinstituten, eftersom ägarna av statspapper ändå skulle få större delen av sina pengar tillbaka, och på ett bräde. (Också Jean Pisani-Ferry, chef för EU-vänliga tankesmedjan Bruegel, lyfter fram att EFSF bör få en större roll.) Också den tyska regeringens ekonomisk-politiska råd, ”de fem vise” som de kallas, förespråkar en lösning där statsskulden skärs ned ensidigt – de föreslår en 50 procents ’haircut’ – och EFSF därefter rycker in och erbjuder nya, säkrare papper för de som sitter med grekiska statspapper idag. De fem vise föreslår att för 100 euro i grekisk statsskuld – på pappret 100 euro – ska kreditörerna ersättas med EFSF-papper med ett värde på 50 euro. De lyfter fram att fördelarna med denna typ av lösning är a) ingen moral hazard: kreditörer som vårdslöst lånat ut pengar får också betala för det i form av förluster. b) ett återställande av Greklands statsskuld till en hanterbar nivå. Och c) att en stor operation av EFSF kan rädda stabiliteten på Europas finansmarknader, trots den stora nedskrivningen av Greklands statsskuld (Weder di Mauro et al 2011).
Sachs: låt EU betala
Nationalekonomen Jeffrey Sachs avfärdar i en artikel i FT det förslag som många ekonomer står för, nämligen någon typ av “kontrollerad” default för Grekland. Han hävdar att det inte skulle gå att kontrollera en sådan händelse utan att kaos skulle sprida sig i Europas ekonomier. Istället förespråkar han att EU-länderna ska garantera Greklands skulder för att få ner räntan på AAA-nivå (3,5 procent på tioåriga statsobligationer, nämner Sachs), vilket vore en nivå som landet skulle klara av att betala tillbaka på. Med dessa förutsättningar och antaget att Grekland kan klara av att komma tillbaka till ekonomisk tillväxt även inom eurosystemet, så hävdar Sachs att Grekland skulle kunna betala av sina skulder på 20 år. Tydligt är att förloraren i Sachs förslagna scenario är övriga EU-staters skattebetalare, och regeringarna som får stå för denna impopulära börda. Sachs hävdar att detta politiska problem kan undvikas genom att intäkterna från den föreslagna “Tobinskatten” på EU-nivå ska gå till en garantifond för Grekland. En EU-Tobinskatt har stort opinionsstöd i Europa; i en Eurobarometer-undersökning i juni sade sig 61 procent av européerna (inklusive 80 procent av österrikarna, 71 procent av tyskarna) sig vara för en sådan skatt, och jag gissar att Sachs blandar ihop denna aktuella fråga med skuldkrisfrågan för att få till ett politiskt mer säljbart paket till väljare i till exempel Tyskland.
David Harvey: Grekland bör defaulta
David Harvey, marxistisk geograf, professor vid City University of New York och välkänd i den politiska vänstern, hävdar att lösningen är att Grekland defaultar. Jag har inte hittat någon text av honom om detta, men det finns en intervju på youtube om denna fråga. Jag tar med Harvey också för att det är intressant att se hur en marxist kan resonera om detta. På en fråga om grekiska valmöjligheter i intervjun på youtube svarar Harvey så här:
”They should have defaulted, simple as that. And they should have done it earlier, rather than later. The consequences are going to be awful, whichever way you are looking at it. What they are doing right now is awful. There will be no economic growth in Greece in the coming 10 to 15 years, the standard of living is going to decline, and in the end they will have to default. So anyway they have to default, the question is only when.”
Bailouts och liknande krishantering beskriver Harvey som “you rescue the banks all the time and let the people take the hit”. Detta är vad jag med ett citat från Willem Buiter i början av texten kallade “socialism för de rika”-argumentet, att man anser att bailouts av banker och andra innebär att man socialiserar risker och förluster, samtidigt som vinsterna förblir privata. Ett givet motargument mot Harvey är förstås: men skulle inte en default leda till finansiell armageddon i Europa, en Lehmankrasch gånger 10? Vissa skulle hävda det; andra skulle argumentera som FT-kolumnisten John Dizard att skillnaden mellan Grekland och Lehman Brothers fall (som utlöste det djupaste skedet av 2008 års finanskris), är att Lehmankraschen kom som en överraskning och utlöste panik på marknaderna, men att Grekland är i djupa problem är ingen nyhet, och de finansiella institutionerna har redan säkrat sig mot en grekisk krasch (Dizard 2011).
Susan George: default plus eurobonds
Vänsterekonomen Susan George har i en intervju på tankesmedjan Transnational Institutes hemsida utvecklat sina tankar om lösningar på Greklands skuldkris. George lägger skulden för krisen på banker och nyliberal politik, och avfärdar besparingspolitiken som IMF rekommenderar som ren högerpolitik. Liksom David Harvey är hon för en stor ensidig nedskrivning av statsskulden (dvs default):
“If I had been [Prime Minister] Papandreou, I would have said ‘Can’t pay, won’t pay.’ I would have then worked out what percentage of the debt was ‘odious’, a legal concept meaning illegitimate, and what Greece could reasonably handle over time.
Then I would have declared that Greece would not pay X %, say half, of its debt and offered to negotiate with all the private banks to determine under what conditions Greece would pay back the rest—at longer maturities, lower interest rates and so on. The banks would have to choose between receiving zero or 50% of something.“
George är också för att ECB ska ges rätt att ge ut eurobonds, gemensamma “statspapper” för hela eurozonen:
”The ECB unlike every other central bank doesn’t issue Eurobonds. So we have government by the banks and the ratings agencies. We need Eurobonds not just to discourage rampant speculation against individual countries but also so that Europe can invest in large ecological and infrastructure projects no country can manage by itself.”
George motiverar alltså sitt förespråkande av Eurobonds med att det skulle ge EU möjlighet till större egna investeringar, och att det skulle minska spekulanters spelrum för attacker på medlemsstater.
Jonas Sjöstedt: default, väg ut ur euron
Vänsterpartiets riksdagsman Jonas Sjöstedt har diskuterat eurokrisen i flera blogginlägg, och i en rapport utgiven av partiet. Sjöstedt kritiserar räddningspaketen för att vara räddning för bankerna, samtidigt som IMF:s nyliberala politik genomförs i Grekland. Han hävdar också (12 juli) att en haircut/nedskrivning på skulderna är nödvändig, och att en väg ut ur euron ska skapas:
”Frågan är nu bara hur och när Greklands skulder ska skrivas ner. Att låta skattebetalarna pumpa in miljarder till Grekland medan bankerna drar sig ur affären är en svart fars. Jag hoppas att svenska skattepengar inte slösas bort i onödan denna gång. /…/
En nedskrivning av de grekiska skulderna är oundvikligt. Bättre att göra det så snart som möjligt – och låt de som äger obligationerna betala. Dessutom måste en väg ut ur Euron öppnas så att nationell penningpolitik kan återskapas för krisländerna. Utan det är nog Grekland chanslöst.”
Sjöstedt står alltså på samma sida som Tyskland, Nederländerna och Finland om att nedskrivning av skulderna – dvs förluster för kreditörerna – är nödvändigt.
Wolfgang Münchau: eurobonds
Wolfgang Münchau är EU-ekonomi-kolumnist i Financial Times och en flitig kritiker av EU:s politiker och politik. I den nuvarande skuldkrisen är han som kolumnist ständigt arg och om jag ska sammanfatta hans budskap i olika krönikor så är det att EU:s politiker är för kortsiktiga. I en lite längre text i tidskriften Prospect, juli 2011, utvecklar Münchau sitt eget förslag för hur krisen ska lösas (han avfärdar Frankrikes ovan diskuterade förslag rakt av)
Enligt Münchau är eurozonen byggt på tre pelare: kryphål, lögner och undansmitande. Han hävdar – föga kontroversiellt – att den så kallade stabilitetspakten (med förbud mot statligt budgetunderskott på mer än 3 procent av BNP, m m) både i sak är otillräcklig som gemensamma ekonomisk-politiska spelregler för en gemensam valutazon, och att den förstås också konsekvent ignorerats av euroländerna. Men han hävdar trots detta att ”mer EU” och ”mer EMU” är lösningen på problemet. Enligt Münchau kan Greklands kris inte lösas genom en default:
”A Greek default will unleash a dynamic process that will threaten the eurozone’s financial stability, even its survival.” (i FT, 11 juli)
Münchau hävdar att mer av gemensam ekonomisk politik behövs. Han specifierar:
”[det finns] a single solution in the short run – and a single solution in the long run. The two are, in fact, the same. In the short run, the only way to bring the private sector into a volontary scheme is a debt swap, to be organised by the European financial stability facility. That is currently not possible because EFSF is not allowed to purchase bonds in secondary markets. [dvs inte direkt från den som utger obligationen, typ en stat. EB anm] /…/ If the rules on the EFSF were relaxed, it could offer to buy up Greek debt at a discount, say 20 percent, in exchange for its own AAA-rated bonds. The sellers would have to register a loss, but at least they end up with good securities. There would be no reason for the rating agencies to act.
In the long run, the only solution is a eurozone bond, which you can think of as an extended secondary-market purchase programme by the EFSF. /…/
The eurozone bond is – literally – the default option in this crisis. It is what will happen when nothing happens. If governments face the choice between the eurozone bond or an intrastate fiscal transfer, they will choose the former.”
Münchau förespråkar alltså – eller, framställer som oundvikligt – att eurozonen ska börja ge ut sina egna ’statsobligationer’, vilket förstås skulle göra lånande billigare för statsfinansiellt svagare länder som Grekland. Vad statsfinansiellt starka länder som Tyskland (eller Finland) skulle tjäna på det, kan man dock fråga sig. Nouriel Roubini konstaterar också det i ett inlägg på FT:s A-list-blogg: med eurobonds har man en situation ”where the taxes of German (and other core) taxpayers are not backstopping only their country’s debt but also the debt of the members of the periphery. Core taxpayers are unlikely to accept this.”
Om Eurobonds
Som vi har sett så är i övrigt olika debattörer som Susan George och Wolfgang Münchau överens om att ECB bör få i uppdrag att börja ge ut gemensamma ’statspapper’, eurobonds, för hela eurozonen. Också finansministrarna i Italien, Spanien och Belgien har uttalat sig för detta. Idag skapas gemensamma skulder bara genom EFSF, och då bara för tillfälliga räddningspaket; med eurobonds skulle ett mer permanent policyinstrument för EMU skapas. EFSF:s tioåriga skulder betalar de idag 3,41 procents ränta på, vilket är 0,7 procentenheter dyrare än vad Tyskland betalar, men givetvis väldigt mycket billigare än vad krisländer som Spanien och Italien får betala (Barley 2011). Anledningen till att EFSF-papprena ger lägre ränta är att medlemsstaterna alla skjuter in garantier och att risken därför poolas. Med eurobonds skulle denna princip kunna utnyttjas än mer. Enligt en beräkning av Jeffries International som refereras i Wall Street Journal skulle 10-åriga eurobonds få en ränta på 4,8 procent (Stelzer 2011). Detta skulle innebära att det blir billigare för Grekland, Spanien, Italien, Irland och Portugal att låna, och dyrare för alla andra eurozon-stater, för Tyskland mer än 2 procentenheter dyrare. Detta är förstås inte helt populärt i alla läger; tyska dagstidningen Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung konstaterar 19 juli att tyska skattebetalare enligt en beräkning från IFO-Institut skulle få betala 18 miljarder euro mer i ränta, per år, om statsskulden sjunker till 60 procent av BNP (den låg år 2010 på 87 procent), och vid 80 procent av BNP 25 miljarder mer per år (Plickert 2011). Ekonomerna vid Institutet för Världsekonomin i Kiel beräknar dock inte att eurobonds ränta skulle bli så hög, utan sätter den bara till ca 0,7 procentenheter högre än Tysklands, vilket skulle innebära 10 miljarder euro mer kostnader för Tyskland per år.
I vilket fall, så behöver pengar överföras, i systemet som det är. Wall Street Journal konstaterar att:
”[tyske finansministern] Mr Schäuble’s problem is that one way or another preservation of the euro zone will require massive transfers from the north – primarily Germany – to the south, a process already in motion. Generations of German politicians have promised their voters that would never happen.”
Och ja, överföringar söderut i någon form – direkta bailouts, genom EFSF, eller eurobonds – verkar oundvikligt. Och då är kanske eurobonds, hur svårt det än är politiskt för Tyskland, Nederländerna, Finland m fl, det mest naturliga alternativet. WSJ hävdar på annat ställe att ”the alternative to a euro-zone bond may well be a eurozone breakup.” Och om jag ska gissa något så tror jag att eurobonds kommer börja ges ut som en följd av denna kris. Att det finns stora moral hazard-problem med detta, och att hela frågan bara visar vilken nationalekonomiskt tvivelaktig konstruktion EMU är, är en annan femma; nationalekonomen Kai Carstensen konstaterar att med eurobonds skulle mer statsskulder skapas än annars, och medlemsstaternas incitament att minska statsskulderna skulle försvagas (Plickert 2011). Men EU-ledarnas vilja att till varje pris fördjupa samarbetet, även där det inte skapar något mervärde, lär nog vinna över nationalekonomiska resonemang.
Inför mötet den 21 juli
När detta skrivs klart, den 19 juli, är det två dagar till ett EU-ledar-möte för att diskutera ett andra bailout-paket för Grekland. Hela bailouten ska handla om ca €115 miljarder. Vad för förberedelser pågår då inför detta oerhört viktiga möte?
Enligt Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (19 juli) ligger tre förslag på bordet att diskuteras den 21 juli.
- EU:s medlemsländer går in med en garanti för privata ägares nya lån till Grekland. EFSF köper tillbaka Greklandsskuld. Detta är ett kostbart alternativ för EU-länderna.
- Detta förslag följer de franska bankernas linje och innebär att EFSF omstrukturerar en del av Greklands skuld till papper med längre löptid och lägre räntor.
- Inför ny bankskatt
Enligt FT fortsätter motsättningen mellan Tyskland med flera länder som vill att privata långivare ska tvingas ta förluster, och ECB som inte vill det. FT skriver dock att EU-byråkrater förhandlar med privata långivare om en nedskrivning (Spiegel, Pignal och Peel 2011). Bankers och finansiella instituts intresseorganisation Institute for International Finance har gjort ett uttalande om att framsteg har gjorts mot en överenskommelse:
”Participants representing private investors in Greek bonds continued to explore with public-sector officials several options related to Greece’s financing needs and longer-term debt sustainability. Progess has been made and the discussions are continuing.” (cit i Hannon 2011)
Enligt Wall Street Journal har flera EU-medlemsstater svängt i frågan om privata intressens deltagande, och gått över till Tysklands sida. Enligt WSJ kan ECB blidkas med att räddningspaketet också inkluderar att European Financial Stability Facility får börja köpa statspapper på öppna marknaden, och köper stort i grekiska papper.
4. Slutsatser och diskussionsfrågor
Diskussionen om den grekiska (europeiska) statsskuldskrisen är nästan lika kaotisk som själva den materiella verklighet som diskussionen handlar om; gång efter annan klagar pressen över att politikerna ”springer omkring som yra hönor på randen till avgrunden” och liknande. Inte heller journalisternas eller akademikernas diskussion är särskilt enkel eller lättöverskådelig. Därför har denna text blivit så lång. Därför avslutar jag också denna text med diskussionsfrågor istället för slutsatser.
Diskussionsfrågor
- om Grekland skulle defaulta, säg ställer in 50 procent av betalningarna på statsskulden, vilka skulle konsekvenserna bli i övriga ekonomier? Skulle Portugal, Italien, Spanien falla? Här är det uppenbart att t ex Harvey – optimist – och Münchau – pessimist – gör mycket olika bedömningar.
- hur snabbt skulle Grekland kunna ta sig ur en default? Skulle man kunna göra en tvådagars-default? Vad säger Argentinas erfarenheter efter 2001 om Greklands val?
- vilka konsekvenser skulle en default (och implicit en credit event) få för privata aktörer? Skulle ett oöverskådeligt credit default swap-konfettiregn sätta igång och orsaka kaos i västvärldens finansiella system? Hur många av Europas finansiella institutioner med direkta krav på Grekland (grekiska banker, BNP Paribas, Commerzbank osv) skulle falla?
- kan Grekland återvinna konkurrenskraft inom eurozonen? Eurokritiker som Wilhelm Hankel och Martin Jacomb hävdar nej; Wolfgang Münchau hävdar ja.
- vad för typ av tillväxt kan man förvänta sig av Grekland de närmsta 10-20-30 åren? Hur mycket av skulden kommer de egentligen kunna betala tillbaka?
- vilka är de politiska förutsättningarna för att låta EU/eurozonsländerna ta ett större ansvar, som Jeffrey Sachs och Wolfgang Münchau (även Joseph Stiglitz) på olika sätt föreslagit? Skulle Sannfinnarna och liknande partier sätta P för detta? Om det är möjligt, är det önskvärt?
Givet svar på dessa frågor, vilket alternativ för krishantering är rimligt?
Noter
*Jag kollade ocksa pa www.socialdemokraterna.se för att se om Tommy Waidelich eller någon annan hade någon förklaring där, men icke.
**Låt mig tillägga att jag här inte alls diskuterar frågor som huruvida grekerna jobbar mycket eller lite, varför skatteintäkterna är för små, och så vidare. Denna text ägnas endast åt själva skuldkrishanteringen, som är en stor nog diskussionsfråga i sig…
***Jfr tabellen ovan med de tjugo största kreditörerna till den grekiska staten!
Referenser
Tidningsartiklar
Tracy Alloway, Megan Murphy & David Oakley, “Investors count the cost of any default by Athens”, FT 11 maj 2011
Ralph Atkins, Peter Wise & David Oakley, “Greek default swaps hit record high“, FT 10 maj 2011
Richard Barley, “Strengthening the Bonds in the Euro Zone”, Wall Street Journal 18 juli
Joshua Chaffin, “Athens faces turmoil if it decides to abondon euro”, FT 18 juli
Guy Dinmore och Richard Milne, “Doubts persist over Rome’s assurances”, FT 13 juli 2011
John Dizard, “EU faces worse fate than bank crises”, FT 11 juli 2011
Economist, “Greece and its creditors: A bailout by another name?”, 30 juni 2011
Economist, “Ratings agencies and the debt crisis: more contortions”, 7 juli 2011
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, “Bankensteuer als Option für neue Hilfspaket”, 19 juli 2011
Chris Giles, “The abyss that awaits”, FT 16-17 juli
Wilhelm Hankel, Wilhelm Nölling, Karl Albrecht Schachtschneider & Joachim Starbatty, “A euro exit is the only way out for Greece”, FT 25 mars 2010
Paul Hannon, “Trichet, Banks Jostle Over Greece”, Wall Street Journal 18 juli
Kerin Hope, “Fears grow over ‘solidarity deficit’”, FT 18 juli
Phil Izzo, “Survey Says: Restructure”, Wall Street Journal 18 juli
Martin Jacomb, “Greece has no future within the eurozone”, FT ? juli 2011
Patrick Jenkins, “Self-serving French plan is the wrong fare for Greece”, FT 5 juli 2011
Patrick Jenkins, “Banks to meet to sweeten Greece terms”, FT 6 juli
James Mackintosh, “Soft options look to be past their sell-by date”, FT 16-17 juli
James Mackintosh, “Moral hazard of saving Greece again”, FTfm 18 juli
Richard Milne och Gerrit Wiesmann, “ECB ready to reject Greek downgrade”, FT juli 2011
Wolfgang Münchau, “The Greek rollover pact is like a toxic CDO”, FT 3 juli 2011
Wolfgang Münchau, “Don’t blame Moody’s for a messy euro crisis”, FT 11 juli 2011
Wolfgang Münchau, “Europe’s fragile bonds”, Prospect juli 2011
David Oakley, “Currency club back to square one on Athens“, FT 10 maj 2011
David Oakley, Richard Milne och Guy Dinmore, “Fears over Italy ramp up crisis in currency club”, FT 9-10 juli 2011
Philip Plickert, “Eurobonds erhöhen zinsenlast um Milliarden”, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 19 juli
Jeffrey Sachs, “Greece can be saved – here’s how to do it“, FT A-list-bloggen 30 juni 2011
Patrick Spiegel och Ralph Atkins, “EU leaders differ over Greek default”, FT 8 juli 2011
Peter Spiegel, Kerin Hope och Gerrit Wiesmann, “ECB pressed on liquidity package for Greek banks”, FT 14 juli
Peter Spiegel och Patrick Jenkins, “EU stance shifts on Greece default”, FT 11 juli 2011
Peter Spiegel och Richard Milne, “Fears for Greek recovery hopes drive change in tack by Europe”, FT 12 juli 2011
Peter Spiegel, Stanley Pignal och Quentin Peel, “ECB and Merkel clash over Greece”, FT 18 juli
Irwin Stelzer, “Euro-Zone Summit Gets Band-Aid Ready”, Wall Street Journal 18 juli
Louise Story, Landon Thomas Jr. och Nelson D. Schwartz, “Wall St. Helped to Mask Debt Fueling Europe’s Crisis”, New York Times 14 februari 2010
Louise Story, “Derivatives Cloud the Possible Fallout of a Greek Default”, New York Times 23 juni 2011
Lawrence Summers, “How to save the Eurozone in the coming critical weeks http://www.faz.net/artikel/C30638/krise-der-waehrungsunion-zeit-fuer-den-plan-b-30468663.html
”, FT 18 juli
Ian Traynor och Philip Inman, “European policymakers struggle for united front to save Greece”, The Guardian 18 juli
Jude Webber, “A high-risk recovery”, FT 19 juli
Beatrice Weder di Mauro, Wolfgang Franz, Christoph M. Schmidt, Peter Bofinger och Lars Feld, “’Wirtschaftsweise’ für Plan B”, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 19 juli
Gerrit Wiesmann, Patrick Jenkins & Megan Murphy, “Schäuble presses case for bond swap”, FT 6 juli
Martin Wolf, “Moment of truth for the eurozone”, FT 6 juli 2011
Bloggar
Ryan Avent, “The ECB against the Eurozone”, Economist Free Exchange-bloggen 4 juli 2011
Jean Pisani-Ferry, “Five tasks for Europe’s leaders”, FT A-list-bloggen, 28 juni 2011
Kash Mansoris blogg The Street Light: “Greek Endgame?“, 8 juni och “Greek Endgame, pt. 2“, 11 juni.
Nouriel Roubini, “The eurozone heads for break up”, FT A list-bloggen, 13 juni 2011
Jonas Sjöstedt, “Eurokris på väg mot eurokatastrof”, 12 juli
Övrigt internet
Daniel Gros, “An Alternative to the Default Trap”, nytimes.com 19 juni 2011
Desmond Lachmann, “Greece Should Exit the Eurozone Now”, nytimes.com 20 juni 2011
Paolo Manasse och Giulio Trigilia, “The fear of contagion in Europe”, VoxEU.org 6 July 2011
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Yanis Varoufakis och Stuart Holland har också lagt fram ett förslag på hur Greklands/Euro-krisen kan lösas: http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2011/03/11/a-modest-proposal-for-overcoming-the-euro-crisis-version-2-0/
I korthet:
– ECB tar över stora delar av statsskulderna
– Oberoende institut granskar bankerna, rekapitaliserar där det behövs
– EIB går in med stora investeringsprogram i underskottsländerna
Imponerande genomgång, Erik…:)
Den socialdemokratiska positionen är väl, som alltid, strax till vänster om mitten på en skala där högerextremen är att hålla kreditorerna skadelösa och låta EU-ländernas medborgare stå för notan, och vänsterextremen att Grekland helt enkelt ställer in betalningarna och låter bankerna ta smällen. Strax till vänster om mitten kan man tänka sig ett ackord i form av växling till säkra Eurobonds till – låt oss säga – halva värdet av skulden.
Det finns ingen anledning att vid sidan av denna extraordinära transaktion för att lösa den akuta krisen för Grekland och kanske några länder till också växla över solventa EU-länders statsskulder till Eurobonds – i dessa fall naturligtvis till fulla värdet men med antaglig ränteförlust. Eurobonds kan fortsättningsvis ges ut som ett frivilligt instrument för medlemsstaterna, utan hinder för dessa att också utfärda egna statspapper.
Man kan naturligtvis ifrågasätta kreditmarknadens – och ratinginstitutens – rationalitet. Om misstanken uppkommer att en stat inte ska klara av sin skuldtjänst blir denna dyrare – vilket ökar riskerna.
Den riktigt intressanta frågan, som faller utanför den utmärkta genomgång av den akuta situationen som du gör här, är om det är möjligt att konstruera någon mekanism för likviditetsåterflöden i Eurozonen utan att detta innebär att finanspolitiken förs upp på EU-nivå. En ingång i den diskussionen är kanske Keynes förslag om en “International Clearing Union” vid Bretton Woods-konferensen. Det förslaget skulle naturligtvis inte vara tillämpligt inom Eurozonen idag som det formulerades 1944, men kunna vara just en ingång till en diskussion om en ny, innovativ lösning. Om någon sådan lösning inte står att finna (eller är politiskt omöjlig i t.ex. Tyskland eller Sverige) är situationen för EU prekär. Utan likviditetsåterflöden är det svårt att se Euron som en hållbar gemensam valuta på sikt. Samtidigt skulle en för EU gemensam finanspolitik på en nivå där väljarna inte kan utkräva ansvar (dvs. som förhållandena nu är när det gäller marknaden och myntet) öka obalansen i unionens “dubbla asymmetri” som knappast heller det ter sig hållbart på sikt.
Att finna en politiskt gångbar lösning på detta dilemma skulle göra socialdemokratin till unionens ledande kraft för överskådlig tid…
Komplettering:
Lösningen strax till vänster om mitten, ett ackord för Grekland i form av en nedskrivning och överföring av skulden till Eurobonds, skulle med stor sannolikhet inte vara utan kostnader för EU-medborgarna. För att säkra stabiliteten krävs antagligen att skattebetalarna räddar ett eller annat kreditinstitut vars balansräkning inte skulle klara en sådan transaktion. En ganska stor del av förlusten skulle hamna i ECB. Därtill får man räkna med att “privata” banker som gör förluster på ett konto tar igen det på ett annat…
Anders, du ställer den intressanta frågan om det är möjligt att konstruera en mekanism för likviditetsåterflöden utan att det i sin tur leder till en gemensam finanspolitik. Jag tänker att det är svårt att betrakta ett land som Grekland, eller vilket annat euro-land, som finanspolitiskt självständigt, även om skattebasen fortfarande är nationellt bunden. I krisens kölvatten kommer skatt- och momshöjningar införas som en direkt konsekvens av de krav som nu ställs på Grekland. Åtstramningspaketen och skattehöjningarna kan man tycka olika om, men uppenbart är att krisen visar en avsaknad av (nationella) finansiella styrmedel. Det är knappast svar på din fråga utan snarare en reflektion
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