”Wait and see”, säger alla jag träffar på från den burmesiska demokratirörelsens exil i Thailand, som ger sig in i diskussionen om Burmas framtid – ”we have to wait and see”. Ingen har uttryckt att situationen i nuläget egentligen har förändrats överhuvudtaget. De allra flesta ger utlopp för en stark misstro mot militärregimens egentliga agenda, och menar att det mycket väl kan vara enbart ett spel för gallerierna. Ingen litar på att regimen verkligen tänker hålla sina ord och leva upp till sin nya internationella roll som Asiens nyaste demokrati. De har bytt sina militäruniformer mot civila kläder och de har tillåtit att NLD tar plats i parlamentet. Men vad detta egentligen betyder är högst oklart. Om det verkligen kommer att leda till någon substantiell förändring i landet är det ingen som vet. Därav det så ofta förekommande uttalandet ”wait and see”, som jag hör alla upprepa.
Vissa jag möter här tar upp det storpolitiska maktspelet, där USA och EU inte vill ge Kina alltför stort inflytande i en region så rik på naturresurser som Burma. Naturresurser som man naturligtvis vill ha del av och inte ge ”gratis” åt Kina, vars regerings policy är att aldrig lägga sig i andra länders inre angelägenheter. Så länge Kina envist hävdar att andra länder inte har att göra med deras inre angelägenheter, såsom hur de behandlar den inhemska befolkningen, kan naturligtvis inte heller dem lägga sig i andra länders behandling av sina respektive befolkningar. Kina har redan ett stort försprång, om man vill kalla det så, vad gäller att tillskansa sig Burmas naturtillgångar. En stor gasledning byggs sedan några år tillbaka från Sittwe i västra Burma genom hela landet in till Kunming i västra Kina. Viktiga naturtillgångar transporteras ut ur landet, och människor som råkar vara i vägen för detta projekt flyttas helt sonika på av den burmesiska regeringen. Huruvida de som bor längs med ledningen har något intresse av att flytta på sig tas ingen hänsyn till, inte heller kommer något av inkomsterna från detta projekt befolkningen längs med ledningen till gagn.
Detta maktspel mellan den nya supermakten Kina och den gamla supermakten USA anses av många, föga kontroversiellt, ligga till grund för den allt starkare viljan att släppa på sanktionerna mot Burma och börja handla med landet, efter årtionden av sanktioner och embargo. USA har nyligen beslutat att häva sina sanktioner och EU har hävt sina sanktioner under en prövotid av ett år. Ingen av de jag har talat med här, som alla tillhör olika organisationer som arbetar för demokrati i Burma, är positiva till detta upphävande av sanktioner. Vad för slags påtryckningsmedel har man kvar om man tar bort sanktionerna? menar dem. Att upphävandet innebär att vissa förändringar måste ha skett inom ett års tid kan betyda en viss förmåga till att utöva påtryckningar, men hur mycket kommer EU att kräva? Vad kommer den burmesiska regimen behöva göra/underlåta att göra för att sanktionerna ska återinföras?
Något de allra flesta här nämner som ett av de största problemen är konstitutionen från 2008. Denna måste anses vara fullkomligt oförenlig med en demokratisk utveckling, och garanterar genom sin utformning militärens fortsatt oinskränkta maktinnehav. Om inte den förnyas inom det kommande året borde ett återinförande av sanktionerna ligga nära till hands för unionen.
Burma är ett stort land. Något som många här ger utlopp för är en frustration inför att detta faktum inte tycks tas med i beräkningen. De höga politiker som nu står i kö för att besöka landet har skygglappar på sig, menar man. De reser till Rangoon eller Mandalay, skakar hand med Aung San Suu Kyi eller någon annan regeringsföreträdare, stannar i några dagar och hävdar sedan ”jodå, här blåser förändringens vindar”. (Jag inser naturligtvis att ett besök av en utländsk politiker kan ha oerhört stor betydelse för de internationella diplomatiska relationerna, framför allt om detta besök är av den amerikanska utrikesministern och är det första i sitt slag på över 50 år, såsom Clintons besök i december förra året. Kanske kommer det att beskrivas i framtida historieböcker som startskottet på nya relationer mellan Burma och omvärlden, på liknande sätt som Nixons besök i Kina på 70-talet beskrivs idag?)
Men landet är som sagt stort, och få länder ger en representativ bild av läget i landet genom att visa upp de finare delarna av huvudstaden (i det här fallet Naypyidaw), eller den forna huvudstaden (Rangoon). I Kachin state i norra Burma råder fullskaligt inbördeskrig. Tusentals människor har tvingats på flykt undan stridigheter bara de senaste månaderna. De har flytt in i djungeln, eller tagit sig över gränsen till Kina. Kinas regering i sin tur stödjer den burmesiska armén i dess kamp mot KIA, Kachin Independence Army, troligtvis till stor del på grund av den ovan nämnda gasledningen som byggs genom Kachin state, vars fortskridande underlättas om det inte utkämpas krig på den mark de bryter upp.
Längs med Burmas gränser, mot Thailand där jag befinner mig just nu, mot Kina i öster och mot Indien i väster, lever tusentals människor i flyktingläger. De kan inte ta sig tillbaka, antingen för att de inte vågar eller för att de kanske helt enkelt inte har något att komma tillbaka till. Den by och det hus där de bodde innan de flydde finns kanske inte längre.
Det finns med andra ord många anledningar till varför ett lyftande av sanktioner och ett alltför öppenhjärtigt välkomnande av den burmesiska regeringen in i ”värmen” bör göras sakta och försiktigt, och varför omvärlden bör ”vänta och se” om det verkligen är förändringens vindar som blåser genom Burma.
/Maria Ehnhage, Mae Sot, Thailand
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